April 13th Severe Outlook Verification

The overall severe thunderstorm outlook from 12 a.m. on April 13th for the day verified quite well.

There was high confidence (75%) in greater than 25 or more severe wind reports, but low confidence in 99 or greater. The count as of 3:30 p.m. on April 15th was 82. A few severe wind reports were noted just outside the threat zone into MS, TN and KY, as a squall line continued to cause marginally severe winds into the overnight period from the 13th into the 14th.

For severe hail, there was high confidence (90%) in 10 or more reports and moderate confidence (50%) in 50 or more. The count was 62. There was a cluster of hail reports in Texas that verified west of the forecast area. Those were associated with a dryline on the afternoon of the 13th.

With tornadoes, there was moderate confidence (60%) in 5 or more. The count was 7. Every tornado fell into the forecast zone, but only 1 was reported within the “greatest tornado risk zone.” There was some uncertainty leading up to the event of the exact placement (north or south) for the tornado potential. The only significant outliers were three tornadoes in Iowa, associated with a frontal boundary, well to the northeast of the main low center.

The reports here were taken from the SPC filtered reports as of 3:30 p.m. on April 15th. The spatial distribution of reports may not be to exact scale and is approximate.