Severe Threats Saturday Thru Tuesday

Severe weather appears likely across a large portion of the south-central and southeastern United States between Saturday night and Tuesday.

The above image compares a severe outbreak in April 2005 that has some similarities to this upcoming threat. One thing to note is that the threat we are expecting for Sunday and Monday could potentially be even more severe than April 5-6, 2005, so it certainly bears watching.

The Sunday threat would appear to be across the Arklatex region and into portions of the eastern Plains. The threat on Monday shifts east into the Mississippi Valley and Dixie Alley. Another severe weather day could unfold on Tuesday, across portions of the Southeast. All three days could feature numerous tornadoes, but there is still more data to review before getting into more specifics.

The SPC issued a day 3 moderate eisk outlook for just the 10th time* this morning. They are already highlighting an area with a 45% probability of severe weather and >10% probability of significant severe weather. (including very large hail and or >EF-2 tornadoes)

*While this may be the 13th day 3 moderate risk issued, it is only the 10th that falls under moderate criteria by the current standards. The threshold for moderate used to be 35%, but it is 45% as of 2014.

Stay tuned for more information later today as I have time to review the latest data.