3-Day Severe Weather Outbreak

On Sunday, a significant severe weather outbreak that will likely last at least three days will get underway.

I will be storm chasing each day Sunday through Tuesday as I work back east. Should Wednesday feature severe weather on the East Coast, I would also be chasing then.

On Sunday, a vertically stacked low is forecast to move into the Kansas and Nebraska area. Ahead of the storm, warm, moist and unstable air will be drawn northward across the Mississippi River Valley. Aloft, strong winds will result in impressive shear. Place these factors together and a line or multiple lines of supercells should begin firing Sunday afternoon. These storms can easily produce large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Some significant, long-tracked tornadoes are also expected, especially in and around Arkansas.

For Monday, the system only drifts east, so the severe weather threat will overlap some of the eastern areas that get hit on Sunday. A still impressive low-level jet will couple will strong instability to cause more severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Once again, this could be yet another tornado outbreak day with some significant tornadoes possible. The focus would the greatest tornado threat appears to be from Mississippi into western Tennessee.

By Tuesday, the storm system advances eastward with a continued severe threat. Energy pivots around the base of the trough with models showing an enhanced low-level jet once again. Although the aerial size of the outbreak may be squished a bit smaller than previous days, meaning less northward extent, it should be another day with numerous reports of severe thunderstorms. The tornado focus at this time is over Alabama.

Now while the system may go on to cause more severe weather on Wednesday across the area around the Carolinas, it is too soon to say how significant the threat will remain and if more tornadoes can be expected.

Follow me on Twitter @stormchaserQ for the latest information.