Shortened Sunday, Tornado Tuesday?

Sunday turned out to be a shortened chase day, but the severe weather event verified on the low-end of the spectrum, as expected.

To start, I was heading south in the central border of Nebraska and Kansas early in the afternoon. A thunderstorm began to literally form right over me and I was able to take the picture in the top of this article before it moved overhead. I proceeded to go south and thought that taking a right turn on a dirt road would be okay. Well, to make a long story short, I was stuck on that road for over two hours before the mud dried enough to allow my car to get just enough traction to shimmy out. We’ll keep it at that and just say that I learned my lesson.

It’s a good thing, because Tuesday is looking like a huge day for severe weather and mistakes cannot be made.

Looking ahead, it appears that a significant severe outbreak with numerous tornadoes is likely on Tuesday. The threat begins in Nebraska and shifts east-southeastward into portions of northeastern Kansas, southern Iowa and northern Missouri. What’s big here is that a combination of very strong wind shear and a highly unstable atmosphere is forecast to line up Tuesday afternoon. Tornadoes are likely and given the parameters in place, strong (>EF-2) and long-tracking tornadoes are possible.

Today is a chase rest day, but I will review more data and take a closer look at the details later this afternoon or evening. For the first time, I actually have an entire open day to prepare for a chase. Given the potential magnitude of tomorrow, this will be key for planning travel/escape routes, possible targets and backup plans should something big go down.

The car is all cleaned up, but here’s what she looked like after the mud incident: