10/9/2015 Tornado Probability

This is an experimental forecast graphic for the probability of a tornado. The probability of a tornado within the teal shaded area is 10% on Friday, while the probability of a tornado within the lime green color is 30%.

It is important to note that this graphic is not analogous to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tornado outlooks. The main point here is to convey that there is roughly a 30% probability of one tornado on Friday. With the SPC outlooks, a 30% risk area is essentially highlighting a much greater potential for tornadoes when compared to this experimental graphic.

To further explain, there may be dozens of cities within the 10% shading, but this graphic does not imply that each of those locations has a 10% of seeing a tornado. Instead, it is suggesting that the odds of one tornado occurring anywhere within the 10% risk area is simply 10%.

Overall, the forecast calls for a 35% probability of a tornado anywhere in the lower 48 United States on Friday, EDT.