Back to Kansas

12z sounding from Dodge City, KS

May is here and today’s storm chase features a return to Kansas. Overall, the chase itself is fairly straightforward. Low pressure in the western half of Kansas will be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. A cluster of storms is expected near the stationary front/dryline/low pressure triple point, in north-central Kansas. Additional storms are possible along the stationary front up into Nebraska. Farther south, at least a few isolated storms should also form immediately ahead of the dryline.

While the stationary front is not a particularly intriguing chase target given the tendency for storm mergers, it’s not completely clear if the dryline or triple point is favored. Given weak large scale forcing, it’s unclear how much sustained convection can initiate along the dryline, especially with southward extent. On the other hand, storms near the triple point may be closely situated, leaving less room for error. Without harping on details too much, the plan is to gradually move northward into Kansas and assess the situation around midday/early afternoon.

There are some similarities between today and May 6th, 2015. To make it clear, today’s event will not be as widespread as that case, simply for the fact that weak large scale forcing means that most of the dryline will be storm-free. That event in 2015 featured storms from Nebraska down to North Texas. It also featured one of my more memorable Kansas tornado chases: https://www.quincyvagell.com/2015/05/07/mount-hope-halstead-tornado/

Only time will tell what the chase will have in store, but tornadoes do appear likely in Kansas today.