Oklahoma Opportunities
The day’s severe threat is focused on western Oklahoma and the ingredients are coming into place for what could be a very active late afternoon. A dryline across the eastern portion of the Texas panhandle is the main focus for storm development later today, particularly where the dryline bulges into southwestern Oklahoma, creating an environment with locally backed low-level wind fields.
In many ways, the setup looks improved from previous days, as better boundary layer moisture is already in place and stronger upper level forcing suggests a high likelihood of storm development. Wind shear favors supercells and assuming storms remain at least semi-discrete, there is high confidence in significant severe weather in western Oklahoma. Very large hail will be the primary concern, but a strong tornado is certainly possible by late afternoon or early evening as the low-level jet strengthens.
As is the case with most storm chase setups, this one is not flawless. Low-level shear appears to be marginal for tornadoes through most of the event. Other notes about wind fields include some subtle veering in the mid and upper levels, but luckily forecast soundings only show a subtle veer-back-veer (VBV) signature. Substantial VBVs are detrimental to significant severe weather outbreaks. There have also been some inconsistencies with high resolution model output. One can live and die by the models, as these seemingly subtle changes may just be typical model noise. Nonetheless, some model solutions suggest clustering of storms, which could limit the supercell tornado potential if that scenario is realized. Another odd note is that at least one recent model run just shuts down activity near 00z, which is eerily reminiscent of what happened in south-central Kansas yesterday.
The bottom line is to not get too hung up on details. Just wait and see how the setup comes together. Even with a few potential red flags (virtually all storm chases have at least one or two), much like yesterday, tornadoes are likely today. This time, the focus is a bit closer to home, in Oklahoma.
