Similar Setup

Forecast surface map for 5 p.m. CDT

The setup is similar to yesterday, with the only noteworthy differences being a slight eastward shift of a surface low and somewhat stronger mid and upper level forcing. The surface low should be positioned over far southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas around peak heating as thunderstorms develop over the High Plains.

One glaring, limiting factor will, like yesterday, be the lack of appreciable boundary layer moisture. Morning observations, trends and short-term model guidance suggest that dew-points will average in the mid-50s throughout most of the threat zone (central to southern High Plains), although somewhat better moisture may be realized in the eastern portion of the Texas panhandle. Another issue appears to be the orientation of shear vectors with respect to a somewhat ill-defined frontal boundary, draped from eastern Colorado into western/central Kansas. These factors suggest that storms will tend to cluster and form into bowing segments. Any discrete storms that develop will probably be short-lived and struggle to intensify. While shear vectors farther south will be more perpendicular to a dryline, deep layer shear will decrease with southward extent and forcing suggests even there (Oklahoma/Texas panhandles) storms should tend to merge fairly quickly.

The southern target is preferred, given somewhat better moisture and more favorable shear vectors. With that said, expectations are tempered and worst case, at least it will only be a relatively short drive back to Oklahoma City in the evening. If there is one positive that is almost certain to come out of this setup, it’s the likelihood that much needed rainfall should fall over drought-stricken portions of the panhandle region.