Tornado Outbreak Likely: 5/16
Everything is coming together for what will likely be a tornado outbreak across portions of the central to southern Plains this afternoon and evening. While some specific details are still to be ironed out,...
Author: Quincy
Severe Threats: May 14-16
The relatively active month of May looks to heat up again in the coming days. After a lot of severe thunderstorm activity last week, the first few days of this week have been on...
Striated Supercell, Bucklin, KS
After being relatively quiet for most of Saturday across western Kansas, thunderstorms finally began to reach severe limits shortly before midnight. This particular storm had a Tornado Warning issued for it at one point,...
Analyzing Today’s Tornado Threat
After an already active past few days, a significant severe potential will arise later today (Friday) and beyond that, tomorrow continues to look like a tornado outbreak. While there are some mixed signals for...
Mount Hope-Halstead Tornado
A tornado touched down near Mount Hope, KS at or shortly before 5:00 p.m. on May 6th. The tornado quickly wedged out, caused some damage and continued on a NNE to NE track. It...
Severe Weather Threats May 6-10
As the pattern over North America shifts, an extended period of potential severe thunderstorms targets the central U.S. Although this update covers May 6-10, thunderstorms are ongoing today (May 5th) and were prevalent in...
Upcoming Severe Potential
The final few days of April finished on the quiet side in terms of severe and that continued into May 1st. With that said, a larger-scale pattern change is likely to be accompanied by...
May 2015 Tornado Forecast
The April tornado forecast was a trial run and a lot has been learned since it was made. After some success with that forecast, I will be incorporating a lot more statistical analysis (analog...
Wild Chase Day in Texas
Sunday had potential and although no significant tornadoes were reported, there were at least a dozen tornadoes in total across north-central Texas. As for my chase, I left Oklahoma City in the morning and...
Complex Texas Setup 4/26
After a brief break in the action, the severe weather threat is ramping up again in the Plains today. The focus is on the southern Plains, particularly in central to north Texas. What complicates...
Kansas Chase Recap 4/24
A trip to the central Plains. Leading up to this chase day, it was fairly clear that a relatively small geographical area in Kansas would be under the threat for severe weather. A cluster...
Targeting Central Kansas 4/24
The storm threat today across the Plains is split into two areas. One is just ahead of a surface low in Kansas and another is further south across north Texas and vicinity. I am...
Kicking Off Chase Season
It’s great to be back in the Plains. Yesterday was the first chase day of my season and I had to drive nine hours before I even made it to my target in the...
TX Panhandle Initiation 4/22
Based on virtually all model guidance and near-term trends, the focus area for thunderstorm development this afternoon is the eastern Texas panhandle. Particularly between Amarillo and Childress. The atmospheric setup involves a sagging frontal...
Nice Weather to Continue
As the weather pattern becomes more spring-like with ridging in the east, temperatures will continue to run at or above average this week. Look for 60s each day, except for highs on Thursday only...
April 2015 Tornado Forecast
After a very persistent pattern through much of the winter, featuring a large ridge across the West Coast of the U.S. and troughing in the East, the pattern is undergoing changes. After record low...