12AM Update for July 13th Event
The models were virtually all wrong with the southward extent of convection Sunday evening. Models, generally, blew up storms over far southern MN into IA, but there’s been pretty much nothing there. There’s one...
Category: Severe Outlooks
June 24th Afternoon Update
A severe thunderstorm and isolated tornado threat exists across portions of the middle Mississippi River Valley late this afternoon into the early evening hours. While severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will...
Afternoon Update: June 22 Severe
The evolution of today’s severe weather threat was assumed to be complex from the start and it’s certainly unfolding that way. A potent mesoscale convective complex (MCC) developed over the Dakotas late Sunday night and...
June 22 Severe Threat
There is the potential for a regional severe weather event on June 22nd. The threat zone extends from portions of the middle/upper Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes. All severe weather hazards are...
Northern Plains: June 19
A severe thunderstorm threat is expected to develop late this afternoon into the evening hours across portions of the northern Plains. The setup includes an area of surface low pressure ejecting from Wyoming toward...
Tornado Threat: June 17
As the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill move northward through the southern Plains, a modest threat for tornadoes may develop on Wednesday. Typically with landfalling tropical systems, the northeast quadrant is where there is...
Severe Threats: June 18-21
As the calendar passes deeper into June, there is typically a steady drop-off in the frequency of severe weather threats across the U.S. Last year featured a grand finale to the severe weather season...
Heading North
After a travel day on Monday that finished with a storm chase in South Dakota, today looks to feature an even greater severe weather threat across the northern Plains. Both of the Dakotas come...
June 2015 Tornado Forecast
Recapping May: On the heels of a relatively active month for severe weather and tornadoes in April, May 2015 continued the pace. Although the month started slow with no tornadoes for the first two days...
Tornado Outbreak Likely: 5/16
Everything is coming together for what will likely be a tornado outbreak across portions of the central to southern Plains this afternoon and evening. While some specific details are still to be ironed out,...
Severe Threats: May 14-16
The relatively active month of May looks to heat up again in the coming days. After a lot of severe thunderstorm activity last week, the first few days of this week have been on...
Analyzing Today’s Tornado Threat
After an already active past few days, a significant severe potential will arise later today (Friday) and beyond that, tomorrow continues to look like a tornado outbreak. While there are some mixed signals for...
Severe Weather Threats May 6-10
As the pattern over North America shifts, an extended period of potential severe thunderstorms targets the central U.S. Although this update covers May 6-10, thunderstorms are ongoing today (May 5th) and were prevalent in...
Upcoming Severe Potential
The final few days of April finished on the quiet side in terms of severe and that continued into May 1st. With that said, a larger-scale pattern change is likely to be accompanied by...
Complex Texas Setup 4/26
After a brief break in the action, the severe weather threat is ramping up again in the Plains today. The focus is on the southern Plains, particularly in central to north Texas. What complicates...
Targeting Central Kansas 4/24
The storm threat today across the Plains is split into two areas. One is just ahead of a surface low in Kansas and another is further south across north Texas and vicinity. I am...